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Central banks and marketsTue 27 Oct 2026 · 10 of 13

Canadian term spread stays positive while model flagged 2024 recession

Unsupported claims · 4/5 supported1 cited · 1 min read

Econbrowser reports that the Canadian 10‑year/3‑month term spread remained positive through September 2026 . Econbrowser reports that a 10yr‑3mo term spread model estimated on pre‑pandemic data would have predicted a recession for 2024 . Econbrowser reports that some analysts had predicted a 2024 recession, aligning with the model’s signal . Econbrowser reports that Canada has at least three recession dating series—CD Howe, ECRI, and Philip Cross (updated) .

Why it matters. Econbrowser reports that the 2024 recession signal may influence analysts’ reliance on term‑spread models for future forecasts .

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